IRAN: A Nuclear ULTIMATUM

​Since before 2002, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been attempting to gain nuclear weapons (or at least nuclear capabilities), and since 2002 the west has vehemently denied them. Finally, on 14th July 2015, the P5 + 1 and Iran managed to come to an agreement despite the war hawks of the right attempts to sow discord. It took more than 13 years to come to an agreement, years of open discussion as to when to invade Iran, should it be in the summer or the winter? All of this to deter them from pursuing a nuclear weapon. The question which must be asked is why? Why is the west so determined to stop Iran from achieving?
 
Nuclear insurance
Well, before we answer that question, we must first answer a different one. Why does Iran want nuclear weapons? This question is simple. Iran wants nuclear weapons for the same reason every other country wants or possess nuclear weapons. Deterrence. Iran has learnt a lot from its fellow “axis of evil”. Both of its neighbors were invaded by a US-led intervention. Libya gave up pursuit of nuclear weapons, look where Gaddafi is now. North Korea, it seems has outlasted all of them. Simply put, the one with nuclear weapons was negotiated with. The ones without nuclear weapons were invaded.
But its more than this. As Iran survey’s the world it notices few friends in a world full of rivals. To its east, an invaded Afghanistan and nuclear armed countries such as India, Pakistan, China and North Korea. To its west (Kind of) it sees a destroyed Iraq, hostile Arabian Peninsula gulf and nuclear armed Israel. Further west a superpower divided on what to do, half shouting for an invasion starting yesterday and the other half being attacked for not wanting it sooner. Furthermore, it is a superpower which is easily susceptible to Israeli lobbying and we all know what happened the last time they lobbied for war (Iraq). North, we have Europe. In the eyes of many Iranian officials, this is a continent is the shadow of its superpower ally. Russia seems to be pragmatist. Slowly expanding its spheres of influence in its backyard while also containing NATO. Its recent entry into the middle east to contain US influence by helping Assad reassures Iran. However, I doubt the Iranians consider the Russians a serious ally, perhaps an alliance of convenience. In fact, Iran’s only real ally was Assad and we know how he’s getting along. On 8th July 2017 a rift had occurred on the Arabian Peninsula among the gulf states. Qatar being ostracized could present an opportunity for Iran to gain an important ally in the region. However realistically, I highly doubt the other gulf states would tolerate such an Idea. 
There are roughly 5 reasons why the P5+1 cannot allow a nuclear armed Iran.
















Nuclear Roulette.
I am going to start with the most ridiculous because it is easy to understand. Also, its late and I want to sleep so starting with this will be the easiest. The first reason why the west cannot allow Iran to gain a nuclear weapon is because they will go ham and nuke everyone. Let me just say this bluntly. This is false. No one thinks this. If you think is a real possibility you should go back to watching Dr Strangelove. Many in the political scene will attempt to frame Iran as a rogue state willing to commit self-destruction just to destroy Israel. This is simply false. Iran nuking Israel would be completely and totally self-destructive. Should Iran launch a nuclear weapon at Israel, it in return would be obliterated by Israeli nuclear weapons.
 
Second reason why Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon is because of the change of power in the middle east. Currently Israel is the nuclear behemoth within the region. Everybody understands this. However, if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon then they may act more violently towards their neighbours through proxies. A nuclear armed Iran may embolden its proxy Hezbollah to conduct more dangerous operations against Israel. Hezbollah and other proxies would effectively be under Iran’s nuclear umbrella. This would result in an Israel which may be limited in response when combating Hezbollah due to fear of Iran’s nuclear weapons.

Third Reason why Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon is it could create a nuclear arms race in the region. A nuclear armed Iran could force the Saudis to pursue nuclear weapons, especially when considering the bold and militaristic crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) is currently at the top of Saudi leadership. This is an individual who feels his country needs to take an active role in shaping the middle east since the rollback of America. What better way to do this than with a nuclear arsenal in your back pocket? Turkey would most likely follow as it tries to expand its influence in the middle east. Erdogan is becoming further authoritarian and religious. His view that Turkey also should have a role in shaping the wider Muslim world would be best helped with a nuclear weapon in his pocket too.  This could create a nuclear arms race in an already destabilized region.

​Fourth reason is a bit of a stretch and is short. Like the first point, it is often parroted by the American right. There is a fear Iran could give a nuclear weapon to Hezbollah or another proxy. This is unlikely. Nuclear weapons cannot just be thrown into a brief case and smuggled into Tel Aviv. Radioactive signatures can be tracked and traced.
Final reason is that a nuclear armed Iran would mark the end of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Signed by 190 countries it aims to prevent the spread of Nuclear arms. You could argue its already dead. India, Israel and Pakistan are nuclear armed non-signatories. North Korea is nuclear armed. But the final nail in the coffin would be Iran (which signed the agreement) then pursuing nuclear weapons. This could be a good thing however. Should the NPT be deemed worthless and ineffective due to countries not abiding by it, it could force the creation of another similar agreement but more effective.

​So, there it is, 5 quick reasons why the west says Iran cannot have nuclear reasons. Hope you enjoyed.

---