The shadow commander: General qassem soleimani

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Long awaited but here now. ​The killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani in early 2020 was one of the most important events to occur 21st century middle east, and that’s saying a lot. In its aftermath as missiles were fired, words exchanges and dicks measured, the world held its breath hoping to avoid another conflict in the Islamic World. Now that cooler heads have prevailed, I want to write a little post about arguably the most powerful man in the middle east for the last 15 years. Think of this as an obituary if you want to the shadow commander, General Qassem Soleimani.
​P.S I recommend you also read my other article "Understanding Iranian Foreign Policy in the Middle East" to truly understand whats happening
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the shadow commander

​Brief introduction into his past. Not much is really known about the General. Born in a village in the mountains of Iran, he joined the IRGC after its founding in 1979. It was here where he thrived. He was placed onto the front lines during the Iraq-Iran war and made himself popular with his peers. After the wars end, he was returned to Iran where he was tasked with fighting drug gangs, something he did well. Little is known about what happened in the next 10 years, but in 1998 he was made head of Iran’s Quds force, the IRGC covert operations group. It was here where Soleimani transformed Iran from a country under siege, to a region powerhouse in under 20 years. It was here that he transformed, into the Shadow Commander

​It was at the head of the IRGC where Qassem started to implement his will. His time fighting in the Iraq war made him many friends (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and then president Khamenei) and respect amongst his peers. Despite receiving little education in his youth, he seemed to be masterful tactician. During the rise of the Taliban and massacre of Iranians in the Afghan city of  Hazaras, many IRGC commanders pushed to invade the country. Qassem opted to instead support opposition groups such as the Northern Alliance. Perhaps it was here in which the General discovered his love of proxy groups.
 
In the aftermath of 9/11 Soleimani saw an opportunity of destroy the Taliban. He instructed Iranian diplomats to provide the US with intelligence, in fact diplomats reportedly arrived with maps of Taliban targets, insisting the US officials take them. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. However, this brooding relationship was not to last, as George W Bush labelled Iran part of the axis of evil, the cooperation soured and both participants turned their backs on each other.

iraq war

The Iraq war was a pivotal moment in the middle east. The US invaded Iraq in 2003 with the aim of regime change. The second Islamic country to be invaded within 2 years. Regional rivals to US power began to feel threatened, none more so than Iran. To its east, an invaded Afghanistan and to its west, an occupied Iraq. After being labelled part of the axis of evil, the elites in Tehran started to sweat, and it wasn’t because of the Persian sun. The theocratic nation reasoned that if Iraq was successfully turned into democratic state which could push US influence across the middle east, then perhaps the world’s only superpower would set its sights next on Tehran. From the Iranian perspective, Iraq must remain weak for two reasons. Firstly to ensure it can never again attack Iran like Saddam did during the Iran-Iraq war, and secondly to ensure the United States mission of regime change goes so disastrously  to prevent the Islamic republic being next to the chopping block. The man tasked with this goal, Qassem Soleimani.
 
Soleimani began by using Bashar al-Assad Syrian Intelligence community to help funnel Sunni Jihadist into Iraq. He then established Shiite militas (Asaib Ahl al-Haq) to inflict further casualties on US troops. 
The goal was simple, inflict enough harm on the US to destroy their will for war, forcing them to leave the region and a destabilized Iraq to Iranian influence. As more and more groups opposed to the US established themselves, casualties began to mount. That was until a separate war began on the other side of the middle east. In 2006 attacks against coalition groups in Baghdad fell dramatically, particularly attacks from Asaib Ahl al-Haq. The reason was Soleimani had left Iran/Iraq and gone to Lebanon to help Hezbollah in its war against Israel. Upon returning Qassem sent U.S commanders a message “I hope you have been enjoying the peace and quiet in Baghdad. I’ve been busy in Beirut!”. To further add to his notoriety, he reportedly sent General David Petraeus a text via Iraqi president Jalal Talabani saying:

​  “Dear General Petraeus: You should be aware that I, Qassem Soleimani, control Iran’s policy for Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan. And indeed, the ambassador in Baghdad is a Quds Force member. The individual who’s going to replace him is a Quds Force member"

As you can tell, Soleimani held huge amounts of influence in Iraq, this increased even more when transport minister Hadi al-Amiri (and head of Badr Organisation, i.e another Iranian proxy) permitted Iran to fly weapons through its air space to Hezbollah at Soleimani request.  In fact, this pattern of Iraqi politicians allowing Qassem to do as he wished, either through loyalty or intimidation,  became a hallmark of Iranian-Iraqi relations. Leaked Iranian intelligence documents detail a meeting between Soleimani and al-Amiri’s successor Baqir Jabr al-Zubeidi:
 
"(Soleimani) came to me and requested that we permit Iranian planes to use Iraqi airspace to enter Syria. I put my hands on my eyes and said, “on my eyes as you wish.” Then he got up and approached me and kiss my forehead"
 
The shadow commanders power in Iraq cannot be overstated. Flooding Iraq with Quds force agents and establishing up militias organisations loyal to Iran, Soleimani’s grip continued to tighten around Iraq’s neck, and this was just the beginning.  With the departure of the American and coalition troops, Soleimani had completed his objective of forcing the Americans out of Iraq and placing it firmly beneath his boot.

Arab Spring / syrian war

​The Arab spring created opportunity unlike the Iranians could have ever dreamed of. For years the Islamic republic had tried to export its revolution across the middle east and now it had the political space to do so. In fact ,Qassem Soleimani called the Arab spring the “child of the Iranian revolution”. This however did not go exactly to plan. The Syrian revolution created a threat to Iran’s ally, Bashir al-Assad. Unable to put down the rebels, al-Assad called for Iran’s aid which the Islamic republic could not ignore for two reasons. Firstly the clerics felt it right to defend a old ally. Bashir father, Hafez al-Assad helped train revolutionaries and was the only friend Iran could count on. As stated earlier Qassem had used Syrian intelligence to funnel Sunni Jihadists to fight the Americans in the Iraq war. Secondly if Assad was to fall, Iran would find supplying Hezbollah in the west exponentially more difficult. Iran could not allow Assad to fall and Qassem Soleimani answered the call.
 
Soleimani sought to re-establish the connection to Hezbollah by capturing Qusayr along the Lebanese border. Upon re-establishing the connection, Soleimani helped to usher Hezbollah into the war and took a micromanagement approach with handling them. Qassem had very good relations with previous Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh, working together against Israel in 2006, they’ve been pictured hugging after long periods apart. However, when Imad was assassinated by a joint CIA/Mossad car bomb in Damascus in 2008, he was replaced by Mustafa Badr-a Din. But when Mustafa and Soleimani had disagreements, the Shadow Commander instructed Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah to kill the military commander. Interestingly enough, Mustafa was not replaced. Instead Qassem Soleimani took charge as military head of Hezbollah and micromanaged the organisation. He also brought in Iraqi militias (Khataib Hezbollah) and helped to create new ones as well (Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun). It would be accurate to say the Soleimani created the strategy in saving Assad. Not only did he create and dictate the tactics, but he also formed militia groups to bolster the Syrian army which had been plagued with defections. Perhaps the most important milestone was bringing the Russians into the war. It is reported that Soleimani made a number of trips to Moscow (using commercial flights apparently) and conducted meetings with foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and even Putin himself. The Iranian response in Syria was created and spearheaded by Soleimani.
 
With the arrival of ISIS, Soleimani saw the years of stoking sectarian divides personified. He with the dissolution of the Iraqi army, Soleimani sought to create a response and push back the hordes of jihadists. After all he couldn’t have his grand plan stopped by takfiris (for more information on Iran’s grand strategy, see my other post about Iranian foreign policy in the middle east). He marshalled his militias and sought to push ISIS back. Following the fatwa of Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani to defend Iraq from the oncoming terrorists, the militias of Soleimani swelled in size and became even stronger than before. Soleimani took advantage of this and positioned his militias to be seen as defenders of Shia’s and Sunni’s alike. He then sought to push his militias to run for elections. This was his grand plan, create a Shia crescent ranging from Beirut to Tehran filled with militias and Shia’s loyal to the Islamic republic, and to push them to run for elections. As Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are firmly under his directives, I would say he succeeded.
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death

​On January 3rd 2020, Soleimani was killed at Baghdad airport by a drone strike from the US. Why this happened now is uncertain. The US had chances to kill the shadow commander in years past. Both George W Bush and Barack Obama rejected the option, as they felt it was too provocative. In fact, the Israelis once passed on the chance to kill Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh because he was in too close proximity to Soleimani and the risk of killing them both was too high. The official line for Qassems death was that it was in response to the embassy attack, this however was already proved to be false as Soleimani had been placed on the CIA hit list 8 months prior to the attack, and the IRGC had been listed as a terrorist organisation 1 year ago. One reason the US killed Soleimani could be that Trump wanted to distract from his impeachment. This is a strong possibility - surrounded with war hawks - it would make sense for the president to push for the more controversial approach with Iran, especially with an election coming soon. The president would want to seem tough on an external enemy.
The Second possible reason for this death could be that he, Icarus, flew too close to the sun. As Soleimani travelled across the middle east throughout the Syrian civil war, he could be pictured with many of the militias he founded. For whatever reason, the once highly secretive shadow commander, had stepped into the light and could be found taking selfies and photo ops with militia commanders. In Syria and Iraq his face was revered as a symbol of Iranian excellence and Shia heroism, often seen on the frontlines at battlefields and at the funerals of fallen fighters. Described by Supreme Leader Khamenei as a “Living Martyr”, this celebrity status may have cost him his life as stories of his exploits spread across the Islamic world. If you want to contain and ultimately stop Iran’s foreign policy, best to start with the guy who created, developed and spearheaded the entire program.
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conclusion

​Even now after completing this 2000 word post about the shadow commander, I feel it difficult to truly convey how powerful and influential this man really was. By all means, he was a terrible human being, responsible for the deaths of thousands across the middle east. When he wasn’t establishing militias to target coalition troops with Iranian made IED’s, he was ruthlessly squashing peaceful protests in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran with unnecessary violence.  It’s even said he persuaded Bashar Al-Assad not to resign when the Syrian protests began, definitely a what-if moment for the history books.
 
But in terms of strategy, what he was able to accomplish was nothing short of masterful for the Islamic republic. He singlehandedly turned Iran from being out in the dark, to controlling half the middle east, in the space of 20 years. You have the admit, that’s astonishing. A pragmatic General who utilised every tool to push his agenda regardless of sectarian affiliation.  He helped drive America out of Iraq, saved Bashar al-Assad government from falling, pushed back against ISIS, brought Russia into the Syrian civil war and expanded Iranian power across the region. He created, armed, funded and trained militia organisations capable and willing to do the Islamic republic’s bidding. It’s now said that, because of him, Tehran controls four capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa.  When he wasn’t instructing Khataib Hezbollah to fire rockets on American installations in Iraq, he was directing the course of the war in Syria, then flying to Moscow to meet with officials and back to Lebanon to rig the elections. Kurdish, Iraqi and Lebanese politicians would refuse to talk about him, like a Mafia boss he instilled fear into those opposed to him and demanded loyalty by those praying behind him.  A man the CIA once called “The most powerful operative in the Middle East today”, he was someone who I can only describe as the Moriarty of the Middle East, the Puppet Master of the Islamic World, the Keyser Söze of the Levant, but alas the Persian Napoleon is no more.
 
The Shadow Commander, General Qassem Soleimani, was a man with a combination of intelligence, determination, willpower, ruthlessness and type of strategic thinking we will not see for many years to come, and the world is safer for it.
 
Thanks for reading