understanding the russian-ukrainian situation

abstract

The situation in Ukraine remains a volatile one. With close to 200,000 Russian troops along the Ukraine border as of 19/02/2022, western anxieties over Russian aggression remain at their highest since the cold war. Despite this, many outlets truly do not understand the depth of and implication of what's occurring along the eastern front. This post aims to analyze the implications of a Russian invasion and what it would mean for world security 
​​

History lesson

Let's first attempt to understand why Ukraine matters so much to Russia. To do so however, we must first look to the past. 
Russia and Ukraine have been linked for centuries. Both countries share similar (or at worst the same) cultural ancestor. During the middle ages (9th – 13th centuries) a loose federation of slavic states stretching across Ukraine, Russian and Belarus came to be known as Kievan-Rus.  As the name implies, the capital changed between both Kiev and Russian cities (Novgorod).  
 Both countries came under the same head of state during the years of imperial Russia, which slowly conquered more and more of Ukraine during the 18th-19th century. Since then, Ukraine has been subjected to Russia policies/atrocities, from the censoring of Ukrainian language and culture in the 18th century, to the million's dead during the Holodomor.  It was only after the fall of the Soviet Union that Ukraine achieved any notion of independence, even then it was heavily under the Russian influcence. 
However, over the past 2 decades Ukraine has slowly leaned further towards the west. Its fight for self-determination has lasted 3 centuries and has accelerated as Russian development appears to have stagnated. Ukrainian attempts to join western institutions such as the EU (whose members all contain liberal characteristics) worry Russia. So the question must be asked why does Russia fear losing influence in Ukraine so much.  
​​

hidden paranoia

Despite its overseas escapades in recent years, Russia is actually deeply worried about its global standing and has suffered a series of failures in its geopolitical security. Historically, it has tried to project power abroad in order to secure itself from potential aggressors. Due to a lack of physical boundary, Russia see’s itself as vulnerable from both Europe and Central Asia. This evident from the Napolean and Nazi invasions in which both forces became the dominant continental power before moving on the motherland. It therefore makes sense that Russia is concerned of NATO encirclement.  
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia saw its power depleted enormously. Domestically, the power of the state declined to such an extent that it no longer had a monopoly on violence. Organized crime sprang up and rapidly filled vacuums of power.  
Internationally the situation was worse. If the state could not control what occurs within the country, how could they control what happens outside it?  The Russian Federation was unable to project power and as a result, suffered from it. The NATO war against Yugoslavia marked a turning point, in which NATO forces acted offensively against a European country. Russia took note, and throughout the 90s saw an empowered NATO push further and further east, with what Russia see’s as a complete disregard for its sphere of influence.  
Concerns over western aggression worsened with the war in Iraq. Despite being in the middle east and Saddam being no friend of Russia, the manufactured consent and recklessness of the war was frightening to all those who could see through it. Despite voicing his concern during the 2008 Munich security conference, western leaders seemed surprised when Russia acted in Georgia.  Destabilization of the middle east was exacerbated Russian concerns when the Arab Spring prompted further intervention from NATO. The rise of ISIS and various Jihadist groups in Syria sent Russian security officials into panic on the prospect of causing rising islamists sentiment in the Caucasus ‘s. The possibility of a de-facto Jihadist state should the Iranians fail in propping up Assad spurred Russia into the Syria war (at Iranian request) to expand their own influence and clean up NATO’s mess. The NATO intervention in Libya however, holds a special place in Putin’s mind. The Russian President is said to have personally watched  videos of Colonel Gaddafi’s grim demise (reports say the Colonel was shot in the head and sodomized with knives by rebels). A grim reminder to the President of what happens to dictators when their time runs out. Russia itself is no stranger to revolutions, the fate of the Romanoff's being testament to that.  
Ukraine was the last straw. The Euromaidan revolution of 2013 in which pro-Russia president Victor Yanukovych was ousted by pro-EU demonstrators after renegading on a deal with the EU in favor of Russia, set the tone for a dramatic resurgence in anti-western sentiments within the Kremlin. In the eyes of the Russian government, NATO was now attempting to bring its influence to Russia’s doorstep. The Kremlin cannot allow this to occur. We’ve already established whenever a military superpower dominants Europe, Russia tends to get invaded (Napoleon, Nazi). From the Kremlin’s perspective, Ukraine must never be allowed to fall into NATO hands. Its flat terrain would allow western forces easy access to the oil fields in the Caucasus’s effectively cutting off Russian access to their own oil. In the event of a war, control of Ukraine would play a pivotal role. Therefore the Kremlin will do whatever possible to keep Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence.  
 
However, this simply anti-western sentiment goes further than Ukraine. The Kremlin see’s itself in a all out shadow war against the west. Russian Intelligence agencies have not been this active since the Cold War. The Russian government see’s itself being encircled on all sides. First the Euromaidan in Ukraine in 2013. Second the protests in Belarus on 2020, and thirdly the protests in Kazakhstan in 2021. From these incidents you can see Russian concerns. Despite the fact that no western hand was found in these protests and revolutions, the Russians still believe interference. Who could blame them, a CIA mole was found working as a presidential aide (Oleg Smolenkov) as recent as 2017. I’m sure Russian Intelligence are extremely concerned about their western counterparts, especially considering the history between them.  
​​

Why does the west care?

From the western perspective, it cannot allow Russia to bully its Ukrainian neighbor. It must show that military action will be met with consequences and has no place in Europe in the 21st century. However, with all things geopolitical, there is more than meets the eye. A war in Ukraine would be the first war to occur since the “War on Terror”. If the west looks weak, then other adversaries (Russia included) will try military force to achieve their objective. The main parallel being Taiwan. Chinese hawks are paying close attention to Ukraine as it shows possible western response to a Taiwan incursion by the ROC. It is therefore essential for the west to show its teeth and show it still has plenty of fight left. Not only to deter its rivals, but also to reassure its allies in Europe, Asia and around the world.  
​​

conclusion

The Russians would ideally like to bring Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence. This could be the form of an agreement excluding Ukraine from NATO. Its could even be some form of federalization of Ukraine to allow a buffer state/states between NATO and Russia. To the West and Ukraine, both resolutions are ridiculous. The only solution from their perspective would be to deter Russia from attacking and place the bear back into its corner. However, doing so may only force it to lash out in a perceived self defense. Whatever the solution, hopefully it will be a peaceful one. ​